A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
