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"I'll be sitting in the same position by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer declared, noting that if our discussion proceeded smoothly, he might welcome the interviewer into his official residence for another conversation next year.

There is never any break for those in the top job. Just an hour before the interview began, the PM had been in calls with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky and trying to work out exactly what had occurred in Venezuela, where his big ally, US President Donald Trump, had recently targeted and seized its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

By the time our lengthy talk, which was considerably lengthier than normal, had ended, Maduro had been indicted in New York.

A Reboot for the New Year

But as the year commences, Starmer appears to have had something of a refresh. Maybe even just some relaxation with his family at Chequers, the prime minister's country retreat.

This seemed to have left him in better spirits than at the sluggish conclusion of 2025, a dreadful political year for him.

But are he and his colleagues kidding themselves if they reckon his political fate are set to get better?

Leadership Questions

The harsh truth for the leader is that many of his party members believe he's not very good at his job. Several of them would rather take a risk and oust him this year.

But Sir Keir was dismissing such talk during our conversation on Saturday morning.

Repeatedly he stated he'd be "evaluated at the next election", arguing no one would take his electoral mandate from him – despite the fact that the most effective strategy of halting Nigel Farage and Reform UK reaching No 10 might be for Labour to change its leader.

"We are in the struggle of our generation and I plan to be at the forefront," he declared.

The May Elections

The problem for the PM is that he will be judged far sooner than then – in a major set of elections in May throughout the UK. He sought to argue, perhaps too much, that they are concerning who runs local authorities, and who runs the governments in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not about Westminster.

True – up to a point. But although he may not want to acknowledge it, No 10 will be held accountable by those elections too.

This did not stop Sir Keir implying that there were no situation under which he would walk away, even if one of his colleagues challenged him for the job, if those elections prove disastrous for Labour.

Predicting a Turnaround

He sought to account for his low poll ratings by saying the public was naturally impatient for things to improve. He tried to convince me, and the public, that 2026 would be distinct.

The economic situation would strengthen in the face of rising unemployment, he argued, when policies the government implemented during their initial rocky year began to show results.

• He committed to shut asylum hotels ahead of the current deadline of 2029, but he wouldn't set a specific date on that.
• He added too, with the qualification that it wasn't a certainty, that a peace deal in Ukraine felt closer now than at any time since Russia's major invasion.
• He stated for the first time that Western partners were now discussing how to coordinate US and European forces to provide security for Ukraine – to protect a potential peace.

His core argument is that soon the country will "see an improvement".

A Consistent Script

The PM may have communicated with greater vigour than I've seen from him for a some time – more relaxed, perhaps, with a longer slot to talk.

However, in spite of encountering pressure from many directions for a bolder approach, with greater political clarity, more urgency, more speed and more urgency, his arguments were familiar ones.

Given that he is in such significant political peril, is a different approach required a different script?

No government, and especially not one that has been unpopular for an extended period, has everything its own way.

Sir Keir's problems are not only because governing is difficult, but because he and his team have faltered, including in the last few weeks.

Regrets and Risks

The prime minister admitted that he regretted saying he was "pleased" to welcome back the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK following an outcry when past remarks he'd made in the past – including calls for Zionists and police to be killed – came to light.

Sir Keir attributed it to "the system" for failing to identify what the activist had said before – a more diplomatic way of saying it wasn't his responsibility.

And he is courting clear political dangers as the year progresses. His close relationship with the US president acquires a new risk after Trump's intervention on Venezuela.

Based on years of interviewing Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who was against the war in Iraq, over his career, the thought he would be content with this kind of intervention seems far-fetched.

International Law and Brexit

He stated he was a "longtime champion of international law" but the public "just do not have the full picture at the moment".

Opponents wanted him to criticise the action prior to we spoke. And the government is likely to face more pressure to give an clear view in Parliament in the next few days.

There has also long been growing desire in the Labour ranks to reverse or renegotiate some of the results of Brexit.

The PM rejects he's pursuing that, but his new specific pledge to move closer with the single market – the giant economic European market – will likely trigger howls that he is breaking his vow never to try to overturn the results that flowed from Brexit.

A commitment to integrate into more of the single market will satisfy a faction on his own side, but it is easy fodder for Reform and the Conservatives to